The main findings of the “Waste incineration under the EU ETS – an assessment of climate benefits” study include:
1. Massive emissions cuts. Adding incineration to the EU ETS would slash CO₂ emissions by 4 to 7 million tonnes in 2030, rising to 18 to 32 million tonnes in 2040.
These reductions stem from a combination of pre- and post-collection sorting and recycling of waste, waste prevention, carbon capture and storage (CCS) measures, and emission reduction efforts in other sectors of the EU ETS.
These figures represent a minimum, as emission reductions outside the ‘’scope 1 emissions’’ of EU ETS – such as those linked to reduced imports of virgin plastics from countries like the United States and China – are not included.
2. Thousands of new jobs. Transitioning from incineration to recycling would create 8,700 to 16,400 new jobs by 2030, and 11,600 to 21,700 by 2040, as recycling is far more labour-intensive than burning waste.
To maximise impact, the study recommends complementary policies such as mandatory recycled content in plastics, wider use of Pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) tariffs, and stronger Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes.
