During the latest meeting of the International Trade Council in Gothenburg on 1 June, industry representatives and market experts highlighted the growing risks posed by trade restrictions and protectionist policies.
Open markets remain essential
Participants emphasised that recycling markets depend on international trade because supply and demand for secondary raw materials often differ between regions. Recycled materials frequently exceed domestic processing capacity or consumption needs, making access to international markets necessary for maintaining material circulation and supporting investment throughout the recycling value chain.
Representatives from the United States recycling sector pointed to research showing that domestic supplies of recycled copper and aluminium significantly exceed current domestic demand. According to industry data, the available volume of end-of-life recycled copper in the United States was around three and a half times greater than domestic consumption in 2025. Forecasts indicate that recovered copper volumes will continue to exceed domestic demand for at least the next 15 years. A similar analysis for recycled aluminium found available supply to be approximately four and a half times higher than current domestic demand.
Trade restrictions face criticism
Industry representatives argued that these market conditions do not support the introduction of export restrictions on recycled materials. Although investment in domestic manufacturing and processing capacity continues to increase, available recycled material is expected to remain above projected demand levels.
Recent developments in the United States suggest that export controls on recycled copper are not currently being pursued. Similar indications have emerged regarding recycled aluminium. Industry stakeholders view these developments as important for maintaining market access and preserving the competitiveness of recycling businesses.
Investment depends on market access
Speakers also stressed the importance of economically viable recycling operations. Companies across the sector continue to invest in new technologies, equipment and processing capabilities. They warned that restrictions on international trade could reduce returns on these investments and limit the industry's ability to respond to customer requirements.
Market participants noted that recycled materials are generally supplied to the nearest available processing facility when demand exists. However, access to alternative markets remains necessary when regional demand is insufficient. In this context, exports serve as a mechanism to balance supply and demand rather than a preferred destination for materials.
Copper recycling gains importance
The discussion also addressed the role of recycling within global copper supply chains. Recycling enables valuable materials to return to economic use while requiring less energy and generating lower emissions than primary production.
In 2024, the global copper recycling rate reached 33%. Copper concentrates continue to account for more than half of global supply, while recycled material contributes roughly one third. Market experts noted that strong recycling performance depends less on national income levels and more on the existence of mature collection, processing and trading systems.
Countries are expected to strengthen domestic supply chains further through investments in smelting and refining capacity. These investments aim to increase the ability to process more complex scrap streams within national borders.
Long-term growth potential
Future demand for copper is expected to increase substantially as economies pursue decarbonisation and electrification objectives. Under scenarios consistent with net-zero targets by the middle of the century, global copper demand could reach approximately 50 million tonnes annually.
Against this backdrop, the market for recycled copper could generate significant economic value over the coming decades. Recycling is therefore expected to remain both an important environmental activity and a growing industrial market.
Need for predictable policy frameworks
Despite positive market prospects, speakers highlighted increasing concern about policy uncertainty. Data from international organisations indicate that trade restrictions have become more common in recent years. Industry representatives warned that such measures can create unintended consequences and discourage long-term investment.
They argued that predictable regulatory frameworks and open markets remain essential for attracting capital, supporting recycling infrastructure and ensuring the efficient movement of secondary raw materials across global supply chains.
